Analysis of Rainfall variability of Rainfed Rice over Eastern India

The historical productivity data at block level contained aggregated from various land use forms viz., upland, lowland and medium land situations. As such, it has been difficult to assess the exact influence of climatic parameters alone on productivity of the entire block, as the situations under lowland may be quite different compared to upland and medium land situations. Similar work at micro (block) level for other rainfed production systems can be useful in planning management strategies for enhancing productivity. The model underestimated the yield during 1989 for Derabasi and Rajanagar stations in Orissa and overestimated for other station for all the years of data recorded under high yield and low yield scenarios. There is a good agreement between the simulated and observed values for all the years of study in all the states selected for the study. The low yield in different state is attributed to the fairly high temperature during the reproductive stages. This indicated that the model output was significant for these stations also. Therefore, the model is able to predict the values of dry matter and yield for various blocks of Orissa state with good accuracy.