World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

• 1: Wolfgang Lutz and William P. Butz: Introduction


• 2: Wolfgang Lutz and Vegard Skirbekk: How Education Drives Demography and Knowledge Informs Projections


• 3: Stuart Basten, Tomas Sobotka, and Krystof Zeman: Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries


• 4: Regina Fuchs and Anne Goujon: Future Fertility in High Fertility Countries


• 5: Graziella Caselli, Sven Drefahl, Marc Luy, and Christian Wegner-Siegmundt: Future Mortality in Low Mortality Countries


• 6: Alessandra Garbero and Elsie Pamuk: Future Mortality in High Mortality


• 7: Nikola Sander, Guy Abel, and Fernando Riosmena: The Future of International Migration


• 8: Bilal Barakat and Rachel Durham: Future Education Trends


• 9: Samir KC, Michaela Potancková, Ramon Bauer, Anne Goujon, and Erich Striessnig: Data and Methods


• 10: Wolfgang Lutz and Samir KC: The Rise of Global Human Capital and the End of World Population Growth


• 11: Sergei Scherbov, Warren Sanderson, Samir KC, and Wolfgang Lutz: Remeasuring 21st Century Population Ageing


• 12: Samir KC and Wolfgang Lutz: Alternative Scenarios in the Context of Sustainable Development


• Epilogue: Education Changes our View of the Future


• Appendix I: Forecasting Mortality Convergence up to 2100


• Appendix II: Tabular Appendix

Wolfgang Lutz is Founding Director of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, a new collaboration between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the WU-Vienna University of Economics and Business. He is director of the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and Professor of Applied Statistics at the WU. He is also Professorial Research Fellow at the Oxford Martin School for 21st Century Studies. He is author of the series of world population projections produced at IIASA and has developed approaches for projecting education and human capital. He is also principal investigator of the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis. Lutz is author and editor of 28 books and more than 200 refereed articles, including 8 in Science and Nature. In 2008 he received an ERC Advanced Grant, in 2009 the Mattei Dogan Award of the IUSSP, and in 2010 the Wittgenstein Prize.

William P. Butz is a Senior Research Scholar with the World Population Program and Director of Coordination and Outreach at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital. Previously he was president and chief executive officer of the Population Reference Bureau. Before joining PRB, he was senior economist at the RAND Corporation; associate director of the US Census Bureau, where he was in charge of household surveys, international activities, and population estimates and projections, and division director for social and behavioral sciences at the National Science Foundation. Mr Butz has taught economic development at UCLA and the University of California at Santa Barbara, served on numerous commissions and boards, and written more than 80 research and policy papers on a variety of topics related to economic demography, nutrition and health, and statistical and science policy. Since 2001, he has served on the Board of Reviewing Editors of Science

Review from previous edition Provides an excellent summary of the state of the discipline, as it concerns itself with the determinants of fertility, mortality, migration, the changing population composition by education, and the meaning of age. Roderic Beaujot, University of Western Ontario, Canadian Studies in Population