Output and Employment Fluctuations

Prefatory Note.- I: Labour Demand and Supply.- Demand Uncertainty and Labour Input in a Bivariate ARCH-M Model.- Income, Uncertainty and the Probability of Self-Employment.- The Demographics of Labour Turnover: A Comparison of Ordinal Probit and Censored Count Data Models.- II: Productivity Slowdown and Innovative Activity.- The "Public Capital Hypothesis": The Case of Germany.- Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Binary Choice Models Using Panel Data: An Application to the Innovative Activity of German Firms.- III: Disequilibrium and Business Cycle Analysis.- The Importance of Rationing in International Trade: An Econometric Analysis for Germany.- Overtime Work, Lack of Labour, and Structural Mismatch: Some Extensions of the "European Unemployment Programme" Framework.- International Business Cycles and Long-Run Growth: An Analysis with Markov-Switching and Cointegration Methods.- IV: Time Series Analysis of Output and Employment.- Persistence and Seasonality in Output and Employment of the Federal Republic of Germany.- Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment.- On the Long-run Relationship Between Money, Output and Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis for West Germany.- Modelling Cyclical Asymmetry in a Production Series Using Threshold Autoregressive Models.- Summary of Articles.- Selected Publications of Heinz König.

Prof. Dr. Klaus F. Zimmermann ist Direktor des Instituts zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA) und zugleich Präsident des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin).