Real Option Valuation of Product Innovation (PDF)

Inhaltsangabe:Abstract:
Global competition, emerging technologies, and an ever increasing need for superior products in shorter time frames all contribute to drive companies to adopt new and innovative approaches to product innovation. Effective product innovation is imperative for the survival, growth and profitability of most design and manufacturing enterprises. In the current dynamic manufacturing environment, companies must innovate successfully if they wish to remain competitive. Product innovation is a complex, cross-functional and contingent, dynamic process, which is difficult to manage. Anticipating change and expeditiously responding to the dynamics of the business environment via product innovation are important precursors for achieving sustainable competitive positions and exceptional performance. The heart of a product innovation is its value.
Traditional discounted cash flow approaches, such as net present value (NPV), have traditionally been the preferred methods for evaluating investments in product innovation. The traditional NPV method, which was initially developed to value bonds or stocks by passive investors, implicitly assumes that corporations hold a collection of real assets passively. Managerial choices (as delay, expand, switching etc.) are thus presumed to be limited to the initial decision. Therefore, traditional valuation methods undervalue the product innovation because they are unable to capture the value of management flexibility.
Recently, real options emerged as an alternative to simplistic discounted cash flow methods. Real option valuation (ROV) values the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding implementation of investment projects and deployment of real assets. ROV extends valuation models used to price financial options and applies them to investments in real assets. Black and Scholes developed the Black-Scholes model to value financial options that focus on factors affecting the value of the underlying financial asset over time. Proof by Cox, Ross, Rubinstein (1979), binomial tree model is simpler to understand for the practitioner and less elegant than Black-Scholes model. It uses the discrete mathematics to achieve the isomorphic results to the calculation used by Black-Scholes model.
From an intuition point of view, the managerial flexibility is easy to understand. But, how much it is worth is most difficult or even impossible to think about and measure with the traditional [...]