Understanding Iran (PDF)
(Sprache: Englisch)
All terrorist groups eventually end. But how do they end? The evidence since 1968 indicates that most groups have ended because (1) they joined the political process (43 percent) or (2) local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members...
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All terrorist groups eventually end. But how do they end? The evidence since 1968 indicates that most groups have ended because (1) they joined the political process (43 percent) or (2) local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members (40 percent). Military force has rarely been the primary reason for the end of terrorist groups, and few groups within this time frame have achieved victory. This has significant implications for dealing with al Qa?ida and suggests fundamentally rethinking post-9/11 U.S. counterterrorism strategy: Policymakers need to understand where to prioritize their efforts with limited resources and attention. The authors report that religious terrorist groups take longer to eliminate than other groups and rarely achieve their objectives. The largest groups achieve their goals more often and last longer than the smallest ones do. Finally, groups from upper-income countries are more likely to be left-wing or nationalist and less likely to have religion as their motivation. The authors conclude that policing and intelligence, rather than military force, should form the backbone of U.S. efforts against al Qa?ida. And U.S. policymakers should end the use of the phrase ?war on terrorism? since there is no battlefield solution to defeating al Qa?ida.
Autoren-Porträt von Frederic Wehrey, Charles Wolf Jr, Jerrold D Green
Jerrold D. Green (PhD, Political Science, University of Chicago) is director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy and a senior political scientist. His research interests include U.S. foreign policy, Middle East politics, sociopolitical change in developing countries, terrorism and political violence, and Mediterranean security. .Charles Wolf, Jr. (Ph.D., Economics, Harvard University), founding Dean of the RAND Graduate School, is a senior economic adviser and corporate fellow in international economics at RAND and professor in the RAND Graduate School. From 1967 until June 1981, he was head of RAND's Economics Department, and thereafter was director of RAND research in international economics. Dr. Wolf is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and a director of Capital Income Builder Fund, Inc. and Capital World Growth and Income Fund, Inc. He is a member of the advisory boards of the UCLA Management School's Center for International Business Education and Research, the Independent Institute, the journal Society, and the editorial board of the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. Dr. Wolf has served with the Department of State, and has taught at Cornell, the University of California at Berkeley, UCLA, and Nuffield College, Oxford. He is the author or co-author of more than 150 journal articles and two dozen books including Markets or Governments: Choosing Between Imperfect Alternatives (MIT Press, 1993), Asian Economic Trends and Their Security Implications (RAND, 2000), China, the United States and the Global Economy, (RAND, 2001), and European Military Prospects, Economic Constraints, and the Rapid Reaction Force (RAND, 2001).
Bibliographische Angaben
- Autoren: Frederic Wehrey , Charles Wolf Jr , Jerrold D Green
- 2008, Englisch
- ISBN-10: 0833046772
- ISBN-13: 9780833046772
- Erscheinungsdatum: 23.12.2008
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