Willful Ignorance (PDF)

An original account of willful ignorance and how this
principle relates to modern probability and statistical
methods

Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and
the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical
evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have
helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of
statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications
amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens
future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields.
Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of
scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of
both scientists and the lay public.

Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty
exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of
our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology,
though enormously productive and influential over the past century,
is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between
qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between
research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem.
The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data
analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific
discovery.

Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents
essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to
anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book
is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related
fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical
and social science researchers, business leaders, and
policy-makers.