Dynamic Economic Decision Making
(Sprache: Englisch)
A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscape
Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment....
Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment....
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A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscapeFinancial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment. Unfortunately, all too often, both private and public sector decision-makers view their decisions as one-off responses and fail to see their decisions within the context of an evolving decision-making framework.
In Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting, John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo and one of the top 5 economic forecasters according to Bloomberg News and USA Today, skillfully puts this discipline in perspective.
Details realistic, decision-making approaches and applications under a broad set of economic scenarios
Analyzes monetary policy and addresses the impact of financial regulations
Examines business cycles and how to identify economic trends, how to deal with uncertainty and manage risk, the building blocks of growth, and strategies for innovation
Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting details the real-world application of economic principles and financial strategy in making better business decisions.
"John's book emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamic nature of the decision process with insightful applications to issues of innovation, growth, and fiscal and monetary policy. This book should be required reading for any decision maker who wishes to understand the framework for decisions and the biases that we all have that may influence our choices." -- Arthur B. Laffer, former advisor to President Reagan, coauthor of Return to Prosperity: How America Can Regain Its Economic Superpower Status
"While everywhere based on solid theory, this book is loaded with straightforward heuristics, or rules of thumb, for effective decision making that sweep away the academic gobbledygook that too often clouds forecasting and strategic decision making. In a refreshing commingling of economic principles with real-world business scenarios, Dr. Silvia unravels both the distorting biases and fallacies to which decision makers unwittingly fall prey. For practitioners interested in improving their decision-making skills and for students desiring to acquire them, this book should be a welcome companion." -- Edward W. McLaughlin, Robert G. Tobin Professor of Marketing and Director, Undergraduate Program, Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University
"With the experience of the Great Recession still fresh in our minds, it's easy to see how most economic problems are the result of intertwined systems. As John Silvia's Dynamic Economic Decision Making makes clear, successful decision making is a process, not an event. While most business texts are filled with complex formulas and abstract theories, what we have here is a balanced explanation that facilitates real-world analysis." -- Kermit Baker, PhD, Senior Research Fellow, Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University
"John Silvia's observations about the changes in the economy of the past fifty years are thought-provoking and challenge run-of-the-mill thinking. Rather than using the typical equations found in any macroeconomics textbook, Silvia examines the actual economic data that are used to evaluate the economy. Silvia does not provide the reader with a hammer in search of the perfect nail. He introduces several hammers, all of which can be used to make dynamic economic decisions." -- William Davis, PhD, SPHR, Associate Dean of Working Professional Programs, Professor of the Practice of Management, Wake Forest University, Schools of Business
"Few experts understand the economy as much as John Silvia. This book offers a valuable piece of John's expertise that can help business leaders and investors navigate through the economy and the data in an increasingly uncertain world." -- Steve Liesman, Senior Economics Reporter, CNBCarch Fellow, Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University
"John Silvia's observations about the changes in the economy of the past fifty years are thought-provoking and challenge run-of-the-mill thinking. Rather than using the
"While everywhere based on solid theory, this book is loaded with straightforward heuristics, or rules of thumb, for effective decision making that sweep away the academic gobbledygook that too often clouds forecasting and strategic decision making. In a refreshing commingling of economic principles with real-world business scenarios, Dr. Silvia unravels both the distorting biases and fallacies to which decision makers unwittingly fall prey. For practitioners interested in improving their decision-making skills and for students desiring to acquire them, this book should be a welcome companion." -- Edward W. McLaughlin, Robert G. Tobin Professor of Marketing and Director, Undergraduate Program, Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University
"With the experience of the Great Recession still fresh in our minds, it's easy to see how most economic problems are the result of intertwined systems. As John Silvia's Dynamic Economic Decision Making makes clear, successful decision making is a process, not an event. While most business texts are filled with complex formulas and abstract theories, what we have here is a balanced explanation that facilitates real-world analysis." -- Kermit Baker, PhD, Senior Research Fellow, Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University
"John Silvia's observations about the changes in the economy of the past fifty years are thought-provoking and challenge run-of-the-mill thinking. Rather than using the typical equations found in any macroeconomics textbook, Silvia examines the actual economic data that are used to evaluate the economy. Silvia does not provide the reader with a hammer in search of the perfect nail. He introduces several hammers, all of which can be used to make dynamic economic decisions." -- William Davis, PhD, SPHR, Associate Dean of Working Professional Programs, Professor of the Practice of Management, Wake Forest University, Schools of Business
"Few experts understand the economy as much as John Silvia. This book offers a valuable piece of John's expertise that can help business leaders and investors navigate through the economy and the data in an increasingly uncertain world." -- Steve Liesman, Senior Economics Reporter, CNBCarch Fellow, Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University
"John Silvia's observations about the changes in the economy of the past fifty years are thought-provoking and challenge run-of-the-mill thinking. Rather than using the
Inhaltsverzeichnis zu „Dynamic Economic Decision Making “
Preface xiiiAcknowledgments xviiCHAPTER 1Dynamic Decision Making 1Problems Change--Why Not Solutions? 3Developing a Dynamic Decision-Making Process 7Discussion Questions 19Notes 21CHAPTER 2Measuring Economic Benchmarks 23Benchmarking Growth 24Components of the GDP 27Benchmarking Inflation: Pricing Power and the Cost of Goods Sold 36Interest Rates: Real Nominal, the Short and Long End of It All 41Exchange Rates: A Relative Price with Many Relatives 45Profits 48Unbiased Information: Biased Users 50Discussion Questions 51Notes 52Recommended Reading for Serious Players 53CHAPTER 3Cyclical and Structural Change 55Forces of Economic Success 55Cyclical Patterns, Linear Projections 57Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Economic Indicators 59Identifying Trends and Cycles 64Bias in Decision Making 66Cycles, Structural Change, and the Evolution of a Framework 73Discussion Questions 78Notes 79Recommended Reading for Serious Players 80CHAPTER 4Economic Dynamism: Growth and Overcoming the Limits of Geography 81A Framework for Growth 83Population Growth and the Westward Expansion of the United States 88Institutions and the Savings/Investment Decision 90Why Does Capital Not Flow to Poor Countries? 92Overcoming Geography: Stretching the Production Possibilities Curve 92The Competitive Implications of Altering the Exchange Rate 95Growth, Opportunity, and Preservation 96Discussion Questions 97Notes 99Recommended Reading for Serious Players 99CHAPTER 5Information: Competitive Edge in the Twenty-First Century 101Information in an Existing Business 102Information as an Input to Today's Competitive Advantage 103Information in a New Growth Business 104Information as Input to the Decision Process for Firms and Households 106Three Steps of Information Processing for Decision Makers 107Information in the Decision Maker's Framework 116Information as Part of the Business Model 117Choices and Information Choke Points 119Discussion Questions 119Notes 121Recommended Reading for Serious Players
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122CHAPTER 6Risk Modeling and Assessment 123Economics and the Risk Modeling Process 124Housing Prices: Deflation and the Shock to the American Psyche 129Managing Economic Risk within the Decision-Making Process 132Assessing Risks Using Econometric Models 138Identifying Change 141Principles for a New Model 153Discussion Questions 155Notes 157Recommended Reading for Serious Players 158CHAPTER 7Money, Interest Rates, and Financial Markets 159Markets before Institutions 162Markets: Interdependence and the Driving Force of Unexpected Events 162Change and Putting Our Framework through Its Paces 166Short-Run to Long-Run Adjustment 170Quality Spreads, the Economic Cycle, and Accounting for Risk 172Evolution of the Money, Inflation, and Interest Rate Framework 173Lessons for Decision Makers 175Discussion Questions 176Notes 177Recommended Reading for Serious Players 178CHAPTER 8Strategy, Risk, Uncertainty, and the Role of Information 179Four Levels of Strategic Thinking 180Discussion Questions 197Notes 198Recommended Reading for Serious Players 198CHAPTER 9Capital Markets: Financing Operations and Growth 199Engine of Analysis: The Market for Real Capital and the Market for Funds 200Perspective of Change over Time 201Economic Change as Driver of an Evolving Capital Market Framework 203Complex Interactions: Economics, Expectations, and Information 205The 1980s: Another Decade, Another New Normal for the Financial Markets, and the Critical Role of the Recency Bias 208Internal Cyclical Changes in Capital Markets and the Overconfidence Bias 210Two Underappreciated Forces in Financial Markets Are Irony and Paradox 211The Great Recession of 2007 to 2010: Under the Heading That Facts Don't Matter until They Do 212Economic Evolution and the Changing Risk/Reward Calculation 213Price Dichotomy: Traded and Non-Traded Goods 215Introducing the Wake-Up Call 216Precise Mathematics Gives Way to Imprecise Reality: What Happens to Markets When the Average Expected Return and the Variability of Returns Become Uncertain? 217Choices: Reacting to Feedback--The Most Dangerous Phase of the Credit Cycle 221Credit Crunches: When Markets Don't Clear 224Capital Markets and the Life Cycle of an Institution 226Capital Markets and the Allocation of Capital 230Discussion Questions 232Notes 233Recommended Reading for Serious Players 235CHAPTER 10Financial Ratios: The Intersection of Economics and Finance 237Financial Ratios 237Developing a Framework within a Broader Economic Setting 240Financial Ratios as Information 248Discussion Questions 267Notes 268Recommended Reading for Serious Players 270CHAPTER 11Fiscal Policy as Agent of Change 271Fiscal Policy over Time: Altering Incentives and Rewards of Risk Taking 272Public Policy and Private Expectations--the Lucas Critique 284Interdependence between Fiscal and Monetary Policy 285Policy in the Context of Expectations and Information 289Long-Run Equilibrium versus Short-Run Equilibrium 292When the Long-Run Outlook Impacts Today's Behavior 294Political Business Cycle: Political Realities for Private Decision Makers 296Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy: The United States in the Twenty-First Century 298Discussion Questions 298Notes 300Recommended Reading for Serious Players 301CHAPTER 12Global Capital Flows: Financing Growth, Creating Risk and Opportunity 303Building a Framework for Understanding 304A Model of Capital Flows to Frame Our Decisions 306The American Framework in Global Capital Markets: The Evolution of Imbalances 313Global Interest Rates 320Risks and Opportunities: Not All Countries Fit One Mold 323Implications for Decision Makers: Introducing Risk into the Global Capital Markets 328Feedback, Altered Expectations, and Building the New Framework 330A New Framework and the Overconfidence Bias 332Discussion Questions 332Notes 333Recommended Reading for Serious Players 334CHAPTER 13Innovation and Its Role in Economics and Decision Making 335Innovation and the Economy 336Innovation and the Patterns of Progress 349Risk, Innovation, and Prospect Theory 352Innovation, Economic Thought, and the Big Challenges of the Day 354Discussion Questions 357Notes 358Recommended Reading for Serious Players 359APPENDIXThe Hodrick-Prescott Filter 361Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) 365About the Author 369What's on the Companion Web Site 370Index 371
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Autoren-Porträt von John Silvia
John E. Silvia is the Chief Economist ofWells Fargo. He has previously worked on Capitol Hill as senior economist for the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee and chief economist for the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. Silvia teaches in the Wake Forest MBA program, serves as a member of the Blue Chip Panel of Economic Forecasters, and is on an informal advisory group for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Bibliographische Angaben
- Autor: John Silvia
- 2011, 1. Auflage., 400 Seiten, Maße: 16,4 x 23,7 cm, Gebunden, Englisch
- Verlag: Wiley & Sons
- ISBN-10: 0470920513
- ISBN-13: 9780470920510
Sprache:
Englisch
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