Risk Assessment for Power Systems
Models, Methods, and Applications
(Sprache: Englisch)
Power system risk assessment is becoming an important and mandatory task in planning, operation, maintenance, and asset management of utilities, particularly in the deregulation environment. However, many utilities engineers and managers lack knowledge in...
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Power system risk assessment is becoming an important and mandatory task in planning, operation, maintenance, and asset management of utilities, particularly in the deregulation environment. However, many utilities engineers and managers lack knowledge in this area since it was not a necessary study topic for power engineering students in the past. This book will provide readers with the tools to solve practical problems using appropriate risk assessment techniques. Both analytical and Monte Carlo evaluation methods are discussed with an emphasis on applied techniques and actual considerations in generation, transmission, substation, and distribution systems.
Klappentext zu „Risk Assessment for Power Systems “
Power system risk assessment is becoming an important and mandatory task in planning, operation, maintenance, and asset management of utilities, particularly under the deregulation environment. This book will provide readers with the tools to solve practical problems using appropriate risk assessment techniques. Both analytical and Monte Carlo evaluation methods are discussed with an emphasis on appliedtechniques and actual considerations in generation, transmission, substation, and distribution systems.
Inhaltsverzeichnis zu „Risk Assessment for Power Systems “
Preface1 Introduction
1.1 Risk in Power Systems
1.2 Basic Concepts of Power System Risk Assessment
1.3 Outline of the Book
2 Outage Models of System Components
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Models of Independent Outages
2.3 Models of Dependent Outages
2.4 Conclusions
3 Parameter Estimation in Outage Models
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Point Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data
3.3 Interval Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data
3.4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components
3.5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution
3.6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and Its Test
3.7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models
3.8 Conclusions
4 Elements of Risk Evaluation Methods
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Methods for Simple Systems
4.3 Methods for Complex Systems
4.4. Conclusions
5 Risk Evaluation Techniques for Power Systems
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Techniques Used in Generation-Demand Systems
5.3 Techniques Used in Radial Distribution Systems
5.4 Techniques Used in Substation Configurations
5.5 Techniques Used in Composite Generation and Transmission Systems
5.6 Conclusions
6 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Development Planning
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Concept of Probabilistic Planning
6.3 Risk Evaluation Approach
6.4 Example 1: Selecting the Lowest-Cost Planning Alternative
6.5 Example 2: Applying Different Planning Criteria
6.6 Conclusions
7 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Operation Planning
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Concept of Risk Evaluation in Operation Planning
7.3 Risk Evaluation Method
7.4 Example 1: Determining the Lowest-Risk Operation Mode
7.5 Example 2: A Simple Case by Hand Calculations
7.6 Conclusions
8 Application of Risk Evaluation to Generation Source Planning
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Procedure for Reliability Planning
8.3 Simulation of Generation and Risk Costs
8.4
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Example 1: Selecting Location and Size of Cogenerators
8.5 Example 2: Making a Decision to Retire a Local Generation Plant
8.6 Conclusions
9 Selection of Substation Configurations
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Load Curtailment Model
9.3 Risk Evaluation Approach
9.4 Example 1: Selecting Substation Configuration
9.5 Example 2: Selecting Transmission Line Arrangement Associated with Substations
9.6 Conclusions
10 Reliability-Centered Maintenance
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Basic Tasks in RCM
10.3 Example 1: Transmission Maintenance Scheduling
10.4 Example 2: Workforce Planning in Maintenance
10.5 Example 3: A Simple Case Performed by Hand Calculations
10.6 Conclusions
11 Probabilistic Spare-Equipment Analysis
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Spare-Equipment Analysis Based on Reliability Criteria
11.3 Spare-Equipment Analysis Using the Probabilistic Cost Method
11.4 Example 1: Determining Number and Timing of Spare Transformers
11.5 Example 2: Determining Redundancy Level of 500 kV Reactors
11.6 Conclusions
12 Reliability-Based Transmission-Service Pricing
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Basic Concept
12.3 Calculation Methods
12.4 Rate Design
12.5 Application Example
12.6 Conclusions
13 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation Methods
13.3 Procedure
13.4 Examples
13.5 Conclusions
Appendix A Basic Probability Concepts
A.1 Probability Calculation Rules
A.2 Random Variable and its Distribution
A.3 Important Distributions in Risk Evaluation
A.4 Numerical Characteristics
Appendix B Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation
B.1 General Concept
B.2 Random Number Generators
B.3 Inverse Transform Method of Generating Random Variates
B.4 Important Random Variates in Risk Evaluation
Appendix C Power-Flow Models
C.1 AC Power-Flow Models
C.2 DC Power-Flow Models
Appendix D Optimization Algorithms
D.1 Simplex Methods for Linear Programming
D.2 Interior Point Method for Nonlinear Programming
Appendix E Three Probability Distribution Tables
References
Index
About the Author
8.5 Example 2: Making a Decision to Retire a Local Generation Plant
8.6 Conclusions
9 Selection of Substation Configurations
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Load Curtailment Model
9.3 Risk Evaluation Approach
9.4 Example 1: Selecting Substation Configuration
9.5 Example 2: Selecting Transmission Line Arrangement Associated with Substations
9.6 Conclusions
10 Reliability-Centered Maintenance
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Basic Tasks in RCM
10.3 Example 1: Transmission Maintenance Scheduling
10.4 Example 2: Workforce Planning in Maintenance
10.5 Example 3: A Simple Case Performed by Hand Calculations
10.6 Conclusions
11 Probabilistic Spare-Equipment Analysis
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Spare-Equipment Analysis Based on Reliability Criteria
11.3 Spare-Equipment Analysis Using the Probabilistic Cost Method
11.4 Example 1: Determining Number and Timing of Spare Transformers
11.5 Example 2: Determining Redundancy Level of 500 kV Reactors
11.6 Conclusions
12 Reliability-Based Transmission-Service Pricing
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Basic Concept
12.3 Calculation Methods
12.4 Rate Design
12.5 Application Example
12.6 Conclusions
13 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation Methods
13.3 Procedure
13.4 Examples
13.5 Conclusions
Appendix A Basic Probability Concepts
A.1 Probability Calculation Rules
A.2 Random Variable and its Distribution
A.3 Important Distributions in Risk Evaluation
A.4 Numerical Characteristics
Appendix B Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation
B.1 General Concept
B.2 Random Number Generators
B.3 Inverse Transform Method of Generating Random Variates
B.4 Important Random Variates in Risk Evaluation
Appendix C Power-Flow Models
C.1 AC Power-Flow Models
C.2 DC Power-Flow Models
Appendix D Optimization Algorithms
D.1 Simplex Methods for Linear Programming
D.2 Interior Point Method for Nonlinear Programming
Appendix E Three Probability Distribution Tables
References
Index
About the Author
... weniger
Autoren-Porträt von Wenyuan Li
WENYUAN LI, PhD is a specialist engineer at British Columbia Transmission Corporation in Canada. Dr. Li has been recognized as an "Outstanding Engineer" by IEEE Canada. In 2002, he received an IEEE Fellow award for contributions in power system reliability theory, calculation methods and algorithms, and industry applications.
Bibliographische Angaben
- Autor: Wenyuan Li
- 2004, 344 Seiten, Gebunden, Englisch
- Verlag: Wiley & Sons
- ISBN-10: 047163168X
- ISBN-13: 9780471631682
Sprache:
Englisch
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