Animal Spirits with Chinese Characteristics

Contents Preface Acknowledgements PART I: INTRODUCTION AND CHAPTER OUTLINE Chinese Investment Cycles And The World Economy Models Of China Truth From Facts Chapter Outline PART II: INVESTMENT WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS Investment In The Chinese Economy: A Long Look Back At Theory And Practice The Meaning Of Public Ownership State-Owned Inputs: Land, Credit, And Public Goods The State As Investor Controlling The Commanding Heights Wither The Private Sector? Freewheeling Socialism PART III: SOCIALIST BOOMS AND BUSTS Models Of The Cycle Obstacles To Central Planning Booms And Busts Under Socialism Investment Fluctuations In Pre-Reform China Small-Scale Industry And Decentralized Planning Self-Sufficiency As Mercantilism Reestablishing Central Control Socialist Animal Spirits PART IV: A HISTORY OF THE CYCLE Leaping Outward And Pulling Back (1978-1983) Clambering Out Of The Plan (1984-1992) From Southern Tour To Long Landing (1993-2002) Overheating And Magic Weapons (2003-2008) Growth At Any Cost (2009) Investment As An Engine Of Growth PART V: WARPED INCENTIVES AND 'SECOND-BEST' EFFICIENCY Tax-Revenue Maximization And 'Track-Record' Building Redundant Capacity And Inefficient Investment Competing For Investment Investment As A Vehicle For Corruption A 'Second-Best' Case For Intervention PART VI: BANKING AND FINANCE RUN AMOK Policy-Driven Lending The Failure Of Governance Reform Lax Due Diligence And Speculative Investment Collusion, Risk Management, And Prudential Supervision Money As A Creature Of The State PART VII: TAKING AWAY THE LADLE Interest Rate Dilemmas Sterilizing Hot Money Differential Liquidity Management Controlling Credit By Fiat The Future Of Chinese Monetary Policy PART VIII: SUPPRESSING 'BLIND' INVESTMENT Industrial Policy: Beijing's Paper Tiger Real Estate: Treating The Symptoms Political Competition: A Substitute For Market Forces The Limits Of Direct Intervention PART IX: SCIENTIFIC DEVELOPMENT: MASTER PLAN OR MYTH? Indigenous InnovationAnd

MARK A. DEWEAVER PhD, manages Quantrarian Asia Hedge, an emerging markets fund he cofounded in 1999. He lived and worked in China from 1985-1994, first as a student at Sun Yatsen University in Guangzhou, later as a research analyst for Peregrine Brokerage (now part of BNP Paribas). He has written for Project Syndicate, Asia Times Online, the Asia Sentinel, and Iraq Business News.