Bankruptcy Prediction in the Agriculture Industry of Ukraine

Agriculture is one of the most crucial industries in Ukraine and the distinctive feature of this sector is a heightened threat of bankruptcy. The aim of this research is to determine whether bankruptcy prediction models are applicable in the agricultural industry of Ukraine. Besides that, the study indicates the accuracy of each model. Additionally, this research focuses on answering the question of what are the main factors that lead a firm to insolvency. The data of bankrupt and non-bankrupt agricultural firms are used to estimate the prediction ability. The financial statements for analysis are collected from the Orbis Europe database. The paired sample consists of 20 Ukrainian agricultural enterprises with similar peers. In order to evaluate the relevancy of using each model, the dichotomous classification test is applied. To predict insolvency, William H. Beaver's univariable, Edward I. Altman's Z-score and Davydova and Belikov's models are used. The companies are studied within five years before bankruptcy from the period of 2017- 2018. The most accurate model is studied using the variance analysis.