Community Banking Strategies

Preface.
 
Acknowledgments.
 
1 A New Era for Community Banking.
 
A Five-Forces Analysis of the Competitive Position of Community Banks.
 
Rivalry Within the Industry and New (Really Returning) Entrants.
 
The Bargaining Power of Suppliers and Customers.
 
The Threat of New Products.
 
Has the Community Banking Model Changed?
 
Winners and Losers.
 
The Revolution of 2008.
 
The Nationalization of Fannie, Freddie, and Poof! No More Private Securitization.
 
The Loss of Wall Street Balance Sheets: Who Moved My Primary Dealer?
 
The Collapse of the Consumer: An Escalade for Every Driveway.
 
The Collapse of the Housing Market: Jingle Mail, Jingle Mail, Jingle All the Way.
 
A Look Forward.
 
Consolidation and Less Competition for Community Banks from Larger Institutions.
 
Signifi cantly Improved Liability Pricing.
 
More Big Failures.
 
A Recession Deeper Than the Early 1980s.
 
Housing Prices Fail to Rise.
 
The Securitization Engine Fails to Restart.
 
The Treasury Effectively Becomes an Activist Shareholder.
 
Crowding Out by the Treasury.
 
A Prolonged Period of Stagfl ation Driven by Skyrocketing Energy Costs and Permanently Higher Tax Rates.
 
Where, Incidentally, Is the Next Bubble Going to Be If Not in Goods Prices?
 
2 Historical Credit Crises and What's Different Now.
 
The Derivatives Mess of 1994.
 
The Russian and LTCM Crisis of 1998.
 
The Commercial Real Estate and S&L Crisis of 1988 to 1992.
 
How Bad Can Things Get?
 
3 Valuations and Lessons from the Equity Markets.
 
What Drives Bank Valuations?
 
What Investors Look for in Different Parts of the Credit Cycle.
 
Practical Implications.
 
4 Liabilities and Capital.
 
Liabilities and Franchise Value.
 
Advice from a Flat Curve Environment

VINCENT BOBERSKI is a senior vice president and partner at Vining Sparks IBG, a broker/dealer for institutional investors. He was a senior vice president at FTN Financial and a managing director and head of fixed income research and strategies at RBC Capital Markets. Boberski began his career at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. He holds an MBA from the University of Chicago; an undergraduate degree from William & Mary, where he was a Wilson Scholar; and the CFA and PRM designations. Boberski is a regular contributor to CNBC and Bloomberg TV and radio. He speaks frequently at institutional investment conferences and is quoted often in the financial press. He lives in Memphis with his wife Anne, two children, and more dogs than are strictly necessary.