Buying at the Point of Maximum Pessimism

Foreword ... xiii Acknowledgments ... xv About the Author ... xvi Introduction ... 1 Chapter 1: The Fed Sentences the Consumer to Debtor's Prison ...7 An Economic Recovery Built on Borrowed Money ... 8 The Fed's Potion of Low Rates and Rising Home Prices Becomes an Economic Elixir ... 14 A Chicken in Every Pot? Try a Hummer in Every Garage... 15 The Three Cs of Credit Give Way to Financial Innovation ... 19 Chapter 2: The Biggest Gamblers Go "All In" on the Housing Bet ...35 Trouble in Paradise ... 37 The Canary Died Unheard from the Boardrooms, Yachts, and Golf Courses ... 39 The Credit Bubble Draws in Every Last Bull ... 46 Chapter 3: Financial Chaos ... 53 The Crisis Moves from Subprime to Prime Time ... 61 Chapter 4: Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? ... 71 An Alphabet Soup of Rescue Acronyms Will Save Us... 72 Strategy Number Two: Spend Our Way Out of a Spending Problem ... 75 The Vestigial Effects of the Crisis Come into Focus ... 79 The Visible Hand Is Coming into View, and It's All Thumbs ... 92 Chapter 5: A New Landscape for Investors ... 101 Entrepreneurialism Is Thriving in Many Key Emerging Markets... 105 Crisis Is an Opportunity for Those in a Position to Seize the Opportunity... 111 The New Landscape ... 113 Chapter 6: China: Ready for Prime Time ... 117 A Culture Well Suited for Capitalism... 119 Putting Those Rainy-Day Savings to Work in the Worst Storm of the Past Century ... 122 Urbanization Is the Growth Engine ... 126 The Path Toward Consumerism and the Domestic Economy... 128 Prime-Time Products ... 135 Chapter 7: Proteins and Agribusiness: Billions and Billions to Be Served ...141 Where's the Beef (and Chicken and Pork, Too)? ... 142 Eating Good in the Global Neighborhood ... 146 Brazil Has the Competitive Advantages in Agribusiness... 152 Strong Fundamentals Across the Value Chain...161 Chapter 8: Formula for Success: Rise Early, Work Hard, Strike Oil ...165 In the Long Term, Healthy Demand Meets Higher Cost Supply... 170 Market Distortions from

Scott Phillips is a principal and portfolio manager at Lauren Templeton Capital Management, LLC, an alternative and traditional asset anagement firm that invests based on the principles of the legendary value investor Sir John Templeton. Before joining the firm, he served as research analyst and consultant to Green Cay Asset Management, where he was lead research analyst on the Siebels Hard Asset Fund, a long/short equity hedge fund focused on hard assets and commodities. With Lauren C. Templeton, he coauthored Investing the Templeton Way. He currently writes the globally distributed quarterly newsletter, The Maximum Pessimism Report.