Decision Modeling in Policy Management
An Introduction to the Analytic Concepts
(Sprache: Englisch)
The last decade has experienced major societal challenges at the intersection of technological systems and policy making. Prevalent examples are the liberalization of energy and telecommunications markets, the public aversion towards nuclear power plants,...
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The last decade has experienced major societal challenges at the intersection of technological systems and policy making. Prevalent examples are the liberalization of energy and telecommunications markets, the public aversion towards nuclear power plants, the development of high-speed trains, the debates about global warming and sustainability, the development of intelligent vehicle systems, and the controversies concerning the location of waste depositories, airports, and energy systems. These challenges, coupled with the call from industry for a systems-engineering oriented approach to policy analysis, motivated Delft University of Technology to launch the first European School of Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis. and Management (SEPA). The purpose was to educate engineering oriented policy analysts in bridging the gap between engineering systems and policy decision making processes, both for the public and private sector. Up to now, more than 500 first-year students and 30 Ph.D. students have enrolled in the program. In 1993, I set up a class called Quantitative Methods for Problem Solving which had to address the most relevant issues in decision making for policy management, such as linear and non-linear optimization, multiattribute utility theory, multicriteria decision making, concepts from game theory, outranking relations, and probabilistic influence diagrams.
The effectiveness of policy decisions depends not only on the quality of the analysis but also on the communication between analyst and decision-maker. As a result, this book employs the following three-step decomposition of the decision modeling process throughout the book: (1) visual-structural modeling, (2) analytic-formal modeling, and (3) algorithmic resolution modeling. The 10 chapters address the most relevant issues in decision modeling in policy management: the problem-solving process, visual decision modeling, descriptive and normative preference elicitation and aggregation methods, dealing with uncertainty in dynamic problems, social choices, conflict resolution, and constraint-optimization problems. A problem-oriented engineering approach has been taken throughout the book because this approach covers the most popular decision modeling issues in: (1) decision analysis (decision trees, probabilistic influence diagrams, fuzzy decision-making, risk analysis), (2) operations research (facility location, scheduling, linear and non-linear programming, network optimization), and (3) economics (cost-benefit analysis, capital budgeting, shadow prices, marginal rate of substitution, net present value, game theory). Decision Modeling in Policy Management: Introduces a visual approach to decision modeling in policy management (over 100 figures and illustrations), integrating the European School (outranking relations, dimension reduction, ordinal preferences, rank correlation) and the American School (utility theory, analytic hierarchy process, game theory, constraint-optimization). Presents analytic approaches in the context of structural, formal, and resolution modeling; references to further practical and theoretical readings; intuitive visual reasoning; detailed numerical examples replacing theorems and formal proofs. Discusses new decision analytical features: visual interactive preference ordering; dynamic plots in virtual negotiation; hypermedia influence diagram modeling. Integrates 100 problems with worked-out solutions; an Internet syllabus with assignments, students comments, and Internet multimedia software are available.
Inhaltsverzeichnis zu „Decision Modeling in Policy Management “
I: The Problem Solving Process.- 1. The Context of Problem Solving.- 2. Problem Identification: The Elements of Decision Making.- 3. Problem Definition.- 4. Problem Solution.- 5. Summary.- 6. Problems.- II: The Analytic Modeling Process.- 1. From Problem to Model.- 2. Structural Models.- 3. Formal Models.- 4. Resolution Models.- 5. Interactive Complete Strong Preference Ordering.- 6. Summary.- 7. Problems.- III: Descriptive Assessment - Criteria and Weights.- 1. Relative Intensities and Weights.- 2. Hierarchical Decomposition of Criteria.- 3. Aggregation of Criteria.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- IV: Descriptive Assessment - Alternatives and Ranking.- 1. Structural Model of Descriptive Approaches.- 2. Formal and Resolution Models.- 3. Sensitivity Analysis.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- V: Values and Normative Choice.- 1. The Structural Model.- 2. The Formal Model of Value Theory.- 3. The Resolution Model.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- VI: Choices Under Uncertainty.- 1. Decision Making Under Complete Uncertainty.- 2. Decision Making Under Risk.- 3. Summary and Further Readings.- 4. Problems.- VII: Uncertainty and Normative Choice.- 1. The Structural Model for Decision Making Under Uncertainty.- 2. The Formal Model of Utility Theory.- 3. The Resolution Model.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- VIII: Sequential Decision Making.- 1. The Structure of Sequential Decisions.- 2. The Formal Model.- 3. The Resolution Model.- 4. Sensitivity Analysis.- 5. Summary and Further Readings.- 6. Problems.- IX: Multi-Actor Decision Making.- 1. Structural Models in Multi-Actor Settings.- 2. Formal and Resolution Models in Group Decision Making.- 3. Formal and Resolution Models in Conflict Settings.- 4. Summary andFurther Readings.- 5. Problems.- X: Constraint-Based Policy Optimization.- 1. Structural Model.- 2. Formal Models.- 3. Resolution Models.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- Solutions to
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Problems.- References.- Symbol Index.
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Bibliographische Angaben
- Autor: Giampiero E.G. Beroggi
- 1998, 1999, XXIV, 349 Seiten, Maße: 23,5 cm, Kartoniert (TB), Englisch
- Verlag: Springer, Berlin
- ISBN-10: 0792383311
- ISBN-13: 9780792383314
Sprache:
Englisch
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