How Terrorism Ends

Fractionalization 100 Loss of Operational Control 102 Accepting an Exit 103 Marginalization: Diminishing Popular Support 104 The Ideology Becomes Irrelevant 105 Loss of Contact with "the People" 107 Targeting Errors and Backlash 108 How Failure Ends Terrorism 110 Chapter Five: Repression: Crushing Terrorism with Force 115 Analyzing the Strategies of Terrorism 117 Case Studies of Repression 122 Russia and Narodnaya Volya 123 Peru and Sendero Luminoso 125 Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers? Party 128 Uruguay and the Tupamaros 129 Russia and Chechnya 131 Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood, 1928-1966 137 How Repression Ends Terrorism 141 Chapter Six: Reorientation: Transitioning to Another Modus Operandi 146 Criminality and Terrorism 148 Colombia and the FARC 149 The Philippines and Abu Sayyaf 152 Insurgency and Terrorism 153 Algeria and the GIA 155 Terrorism as a Catalyst for Major War 157 India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri Separatist Groups 159 Outdated Paradigms, Practical Implications 162 How War Ends Terrorism 166 Chapter Seven: How Al-Qaeda Ends: The Relevance and Irrelevance of History 167 Is Al-Qaeda Unique? 168 Resilient Structure 169 Methods of Radicalization and Recruitment 171 Means of Support 174 Means of Communication 175 The Relevance and Irrelevance of History for Al-Qaeda: Applying the Framework 177 Decapitation: Capturing or Killing the Leaders 177 Negotiations: Talking to Al-Qaeda or Its Associates 179 Success: Achieving Al-Qaeda's Objectives 182 Failure through Implosion 183 Failure through Diminishment of Popular Support 187 Repression: Crushing Al-Qaeda with Force 190 Reorientation: Transitioning to Other Means 191 Al-Qaeda's Decline and Demise 193 Conclusion 197 Understanding How Terrorism Ends 201 Appendix: Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Campaigns 207 Notes 223 Selected Bibliography 283 Index 297

difficult to predict. -- Christopher Mackmurdo, Global Policy In a new book with the blunt title How Terrorism Ends, Cronin ... has filled that gap by collecting and analyzing as much information as possible about the demise of past terrorist campaigns and organizations. Eschewing sociological or psychological speculation about why groups opt to use terrorism, she focuses instead on the strategic consequences of their actions. The result is a refreshingly sober treatment of the subject. -- Justin Vogt, The National Serious work on this subject has begun to emerge with Audrey Kurth Cronin's splendid recent study, How Terrorism Ends, providing a strong example. -- Richard English, International Affairs I applaud the outstanding analysis in this book. By meticulously selecting, recording, and examining terrorism, Cronin has provided an excellent foundation for the planners and implementers of counterterrorism. -- Terence Parker, Michigan War Studies Review The fact that Cronin's book raises more questions than it answers may ultimately be a positive, because she aims to provide a wide ranging analysis of a subject in its early phases that can serve as a springboard to future studies. How Terrorism Ends is, therefore, a worthwhile book for both academics and policymakers. If a reader agrees with some points and finds others lacking, but ultimately considers how to grapple with terrorism from a new perspective, Cronin will have succeeded in her aims. -- Peter J. P. Krause, Journal of Strategic Studies Cronin has written an important book on how terrorism ends. Her analysis is equally illuminating for its insights into why people engage in terrorism in the first place. -- Max Abrahms, Middle East Quarterly [A] broad variety of approaches benefit from Cronin's work. It is hard to imagine a thoughtful reader who won't be provoked by something in this book. It is still harder to imagine one who won't fine his or her work enriched by it. -- Thomas Maddux, H-Diplo ISSF How Terrorism Ends is comprehensive, historical, and academically rigorous. Terror campaigns might seem endless, but as Cronin has so accurately depicted, terror campaigns always end and usually not in the favor of the terrorists organization. I highly recommend the book to anyone with an interest in understanding terrorist organizations and the political and military means to defeat them. -- Ken Miller, Military Review