Multipolarity

ForewordPeter W. Schulze"Europa kann seine Stabilität nur gewinnen,wenn es sicherheitspolitisch zwischen Lissabon und Wladiwostokfür seine Staaten eine Struktur mit gemeinsamen Regeln formt".["Europe can only obtain stability if it constructs a security architecture for its states between Lisbon and Vladivostok, based on common rules".]Egon Bahr (1998, 84)The current international order is in transition, driven by the interplay of its main actors: Washington; Moscow; Beijing; and less significantly, the European Union. Other emerging powers are also challenging the present arrangement and if successful, they will eventually create a multipolar global order. The transient international order is currently characterised by chronic instability, regional and global turmoil, and a dramatic decline in its ease of governance. The central question is whether the emerging multipolar order can provide security and welfare for the international community. Or, will we see policies based on protracted narrow definitions of national interests, undermining opportunities for trust and confidence-building among the driving forces of the transformation process? Are we bound to reawaken memories of the bipolar, Cold War era, with its proxy wars that instrumentalised domestic and regional conflicts for external purposes? The chances of reforming and democratising the United Nations are rather slim. Mutual trust and consensus over the essential challenges facing the world's chief international actors are missing. This book is devoted to the questions of what the multipolar world order could lead to, and how it could affect the international system's major powers.As Richard Sakwa concludes, the leading actors themselves are also exposed to drastic changes. According to Sakwa, the international system today is a binary order, with secondary institutions of international society at the top, including the United Nations and other institutions of economic, financial, legal, environmental, and

ContentsForeword 7Peter W. SchulzeMultipolar prospects amid multiple challenges: Resurgent nationalism and declining US leadership 13Richard FalkPart I: Central elements of an emerging world orderThe international system and the clash of world orders 27Richard SakwaLooming threat: The decay of the existing international order 53Jia QingguoA new world order: A view from Russia 59Sergey Karaganov and Dmitry SuslovPost-Western world orders 83Raffaele MarchettiPart II: Building blocks, drivers, and perspectivesThe global revolt against the liberal world order 103Adrian PabstA world in transition: Views from Russia, the US, and the EU on the challenges of multipolarity 127Peter W. SchulzeGreater Europe: Internal and external threats to security 161Alexey GromykoThe European Union's African challenge: An unknown quantity in tomorrow's world order 175Winfried VeitEurope at a crossroads: Less is more 189Walter SchwimmerPart III: Outlook: Eurasia's further diffusion of power?Beyond China: The return of the Eurasian order 211Jacopo Maria PepeNotes on contributors 229Index 232

Peter W. Schulze ist Privatdozent für Internationale Politik an der Universität Göttingen und Gründungsmitglied des DOC RI Berlin.