Sold Out

Chapter One

The Shelves Are Bare

One of the bedrock characteristics of disruptions is that they are almost never the result of a single failure. A large-scale disruption is usually the result of a confluence of several factors. . . . There are typically many signs that a disruption is about to take place.

-Yossi Sheffi

The Resilient Enterprise

The Endless Supply Chain

Supply chains are not part of the economy. They are the economy. It's impossible to think of any commodity, process, or finished product that's not part of a supply chain. This precept applies to natural resources and human artifacts. It applies to objects and intangibles. It applies to goods and services. We are immersed in supply chains. The irony is that we scarcely see them.

The term "supply chain" is just a name we give to a nexus of logistics, inputs, processes, transportation, packaging, distribution, marketing, customer relations, vendor relations, and human capital that in the aggregate supports the supply and demand for every physical, digital, intellectual, or artistic artifact on the planet and in space. The supply chain is everywhere.

Supply chain management has come so far in recent decades and resulted in such efficiencies that consumers take good delivery for granted. Amazon and Walmart are leaders in the efficient delivery of high-quality, low-cost products, yet they are hardly alone. Supply chain efficiencies have trickled down to the boutique retail level, where a proprietor can go online and easily track a shipment of carved trays from Thailand arriving by container cargo on its way to a regional distribution center. When we enter her store, we expect the trays to be available. When we shop at Amazon we expect next-day delivery to our door. We don't think any of this is special. We take it for granted.

Behind the scenes from the retail buyer's perspective is not only a long, complex supply chain but an army of assembly-line workers, dockworkers,

James Rickards is the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a financial newsletter, and the bestselling author of The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, and many more. He is an investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. 

PRAISE FOR THE WORKS OF JAMES RICKARDS

The author argues persuasively [and] offers an eminently sensible (though costly and surely difficult) solution An alarming but not alarmist book that deserves serious attention from economists and policymakers.
Kirkus Reviews

Rickards provides a wonderful antidote to some of the insanity too often evident around the study of monetary questions...A valuable contribution to our economic discourse. One can but hope that our senators and representatives find their way to it.
Forbes

A bracing collection of salvos...Let s just hope that the next thirty years are less bleak than Mr. Rickards expects.
The Financial Times

Rickards has gone and done it again.
Wealth Briefing Asia

One of the scariest books I ve read this year... [Rickards s] intelligent reasoning soon convinced me that we have more to fear than fear itself. The pieces, although disparate, fit together snugly, as in one of those mystery jigsaw puzzles that come with clues in lieu of cover art. The picture that emerges is dark yet comprehensive and satisfying.
Bloomberg Businessweek

What we assumed was firm ground under our feet is more like the narrowing point of a precipice.
Charles A. Duelfer, former special adviser to the director of the CIA, author of Hide and Seek: The Search for Truth in Iraq