Statistical Models in Epidemiology

I. PROBABILITY MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD; 1. Probability models; 2. Conditional probability models; 3. Likelihood; 4. Consecutive follow-up intervals; 5. Rates; 6. Time; 7. Competing risks and selection; 8. The Gaussian probability model; 9. Approximate likelihoods; 10. Likelihood, probability, and confidence; 11. Null hypotheses and p-values; 12. Small studies; 13. Likelihoods for the rate ratio; 14. Confounding and standardization; 15. Comparison of rates within strata; 16. Case-control studies; 17. Likelihoods for the odds ratio; 18. Comparison of odds within strata; 19. Individually matched case-control studies; 20. Tests for trend; 21. The size of investigations; II. REGRESSION MODELS; 22. Introduction to regression models; 23. Poission and logistic regression; 24. Testing hypotheses; 25. Models for dose-response; 26. More about interaction; 27. Choice and interpretation of models; 28. Additivity and synergism; 29. Conditional logistic regression; 30. Cox's regression analysis; 31. Time-varying explanatory variables; 32. Three examples; 33. Nested case-control studies; 34. Gaussian regression models; 35. Postscript; III. APPENDICES; A. Exponentials; B. Some basic calculus; C. Approximate profile likelihoods; D. Table of the Chi-squared distribution; Index