Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making

Preface. Contributors. Theme I. Model Conceptualization. Spatially Explicit Versus Lumped Models In Catchment Hydrology - Experiences From Two Case Studies; H. Bormann Et Al.- Cellular Automata Modelling Of Environmental Systems; S. Straface And G. Mendicino.- Agent-Based Modeling Of Socio-Economic Processes Related To The Environment: Example Of Land-Use Change; J. G. Polhill.- Theme II. Verification Of Models. Interval Analysis And Verification Of Mathematical Models; T. Csendes.- Stochastic Arithmretic And Verification Of Mathematical Models; J.-M. Chesneaux, et al.- Theme III. Calibration And Sensitivity Analysis. Model Calibration/Parameter Estimation Techniques And Conceptual Model Error; P.Gaganis.- User Subjectivity In Monte Carlo Modelling Of Pesticide Exposure; M. Trevisan.- Recommended Practices In Global Sensitivity Analysis; A. Saltelli et al.- Theme IV. Evaluation Of Models. Incoherence Of The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Methodology And The Equifinality Thesis; E.Todini.- Theme V. Communicating Modelling Results And Uncertainties. Communicating Uncertainty To Policy Makers; A. Patt.- Communicating Scientific Uncertainty For Decision Making About Co2 Storage; P.M. Hogan.- Theme VI. Decision Making On The Basis Of Model Prediction. Approaches To Handling Uncertainty When Setting Environmental Exposure Standards; E. Budtz-Jørgensen et al.- Case Study I. Soil Carbon Dynamics. Sources Of Uncertainty In Future Soil Organic Carbon Storage; Chr. Jones And Pete Falloon.- Uncertainties Related To The Temperature Sensitivity Of Soil Carbon Decomposition; M.J.I. Briones.- Case Study II. Global Climate Change. Media Representational Practices In The Anthropocene Era; M.T. Boykoff.-The Stern Review And The Uncertainties In The Economics Of Climate Change; V. Peña.- Case Study III. Natural Attenuation Of Contamimants And Risk Assessment. Phytotechnologies: HowPlants And Bacteria Work Together; S. Shilev et al.- Subject Index.