An empirical study of efficient market hypothesis and its existence in virtual markets (PDF)

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2015 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 2:1 (68%), Northumbria University, course: Business with Financial Management, language: English, abstract: Virtual and computer games are rapidly increasing with the introduction of the smartphone and the app stores across multiple platforms and devices with an increase in games with virtual economies. This dissertation will analyse the efficient market hypothesis, along with commonly known anomalies and information announcements. It will find out whether there are market inefficiencies in virtual games in the form of anomalies, more specifically the intra-day effect. The intra-day effect anomaly is one of many critiques of the efficient market hypothesis and there have been many studies conducted into the intra-day effect. Most research on the intra-day effect anomaly is concerning real world markets and the results have contradicted one another.

This study looks at the price change movements of 118 randomly quota sampled player cards within the market of FIFA Ultimate Team. Statistical analysis in the form of mean, standard deviation, and coefficients of variances tests were carried out to identify if there were any market anomalies and reactions to information announcements. A strong correlation between market inefficiencies, anomalies, and information announcements had been discovered within the research of the virtual market in FIFA Ultimate Team. The study actually found that because of an information announcement overreaction and an intra-day effect, at a specific time during a Wednesday, a player could sell their card for potentially 233% more than what they could have an hour earlier. This research study in turn supports that market anomalies do exist in games but it was also discovered that the market is semi-strong form efficient in its reaction post-information announcement.