Evaluation of the Forecasting Capability of Selected Valuation Models for a Long-Term Equity Investment (PDF)

In the 1990s, the global stock market experienced the birth of the new technology sector and an extraordinary increase in values. However, the surge of stock values came to an end in 2000 when stock markets dropped significantly. Especially the technology sector suffered greatly, and a high amount of wealth was erased by sharply falling markets. Could it have been possible to predict stock prices in such a market environment and, therefore, enable the equity investor to invest in undervalued stocks, if there were any? The key question for an investor in this context is whether an investment is fairly priced at the time of investment. This is of importance if one believes that stock prices can be overvalued or undervalued at times but adjust to their true values in the long-term. To form an opinion on whether an investment is fairly priced or not, i.e. overvalued or undervalued, an investor needs a valuation model. Such a model provides a theoretically correct value which can be used as a benchmark for the decision. In her study, Sussane Hakuba examines the forecasting capability of two selected valuation models for long-term equity investments over a nine-quarter time horizon (from the 4th quarter of 1999 to the 4th quarter of 2000): a) the two-stage free cash flow to equity (FCFE) model andb) the dividend discount model (DDM) as applied by JPMorgan Fleming. Susanne Hakuba looks at the application of the two equity valuation models analyzed including theory on the models, their inputs, and assumptions made. In addition, she provides discussion of the stock valuations performed and comes to conclusions and recommendations for future valuations applying the models examined.