The Era of Uncertainty (ePub)

Foreword xiii Preface xvii Acknowledgments xxi Part I Why "Macro Matters" 1 Chapter 1 What Is Macro, and Why Should Investors Care? 3 Macro Explains More Than 70 Percent of Equity Returns 5 Macro's Role in Bubble-Mania 7 Chapter Summary 14 Chapter 2 The Ever-Changing Macro Landscape 17 Macro in the Age of Globalization 17 The Increasing Role of Macro in the Years Ahead 22 Learning from Macro-Driven Markets of the Past 28 Chapter Summary 33 Chapter 3 Harnessing the Power of the Business Cycle in Investing 35 Macro Is the Bedrock of Successful Investing 37 Chapter Summary 42 Chapter 4 The Pitfalls of Ignoring Macro Influences: Accidental Success 43 Macro Lessons Are Learned through Experience 44 Chapter Summary 48 Part II The Roots of the New Era of Uncertainty: The Credit Crisis 49 Chapter 5 A View from the Front Lines 51 The Bubble Intensifies 55 Slaying of the Bear 57 Chapter Summary 58 Chapter 6 In the Weeds 61 The Fog of War 62 The Bubble Was Predictable! 67 And the End Was Foreseeable . . . Macro Could Have Helped 71 Chapter Summary 76 Part III Current Policies Are Leading Us Down an Unsustainable Path 79 Chapter 7 No More Tools in the Toolbox 81 A Breakdown in the Traditional Economic Model of the United States 83 It's All About the Consumer! 85 Exports Are Not Enough 89 Chapter Summary 93 Chapter 8 The Government's Un-Safety Net 95 Inflation Enters the Picture 97 Spinning Our Wheels 98 Nowhere Fast 101 Chapter Summary 103 Chapter 9 Kicking the Can Down the Road 105 QE Was an Experiment 105 We're All Keynesians Now...Unfortunately? 108 Uncertainty Kills Growth 111 The State and Local Time Bomb 114 The Privatization Option 118 No Short-Term Fixes 120 Chapter Summary 122 Chapter 10 Threats to Righting the Path of Policy 125 Mobility Threatens Austerity 125 Inequality and Protectionism 128 Business Cycle Trends Could Exacerbate the Policy Conundrum 130 Chapter Summary 131 Part IV Investing for an Uncertain Future 133 Chapter 11 A Closer Look at Inflation 135

François Trahan is Vice Chairman and Chief Investment Strategist of Wolfe Trahan & Co., a premier investment research boutique. He was one of the lone voices who wrote about the existence of a housing bubble years before it burst. Institutional Investor magazine has ranked Mr. Trahan the number-one portfolio strategist for the past three years, and in five of the past six years. Katherine Krantz is Managing Director and Founding Partner of Miracle Mile Advisors, LLC, an investment advisory firm located in Beverly Hills and New York. She serves as the Chief Economic Strategist and is responsible for the firm's macro view and asset allocation framework.

Dieses eBook können Sie uneingeschränkt auf allen Geräten der tolino Familie lesen. Zum Lesen auf sonstigen eReadern und am PC benötigen Sie eine Adobe ID.