The Impact Of Covid-19 On Statistical Characteristics of Coffee Market. Evidence From Ethiopian Coffee (PDF)

Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2020 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 96 %, World Wide Education (WORLDQUANT UNIVERSITY), course: FINANCIAL ENGINEERING CAPSTONE PROJECT, language: English, abstract: Following the recent world crisis as a result of COVID-19 pandemic, the world has suffered tremendous losses in almost all market sectors that form the global economy. In this light, the researchers have decided to carry out a market research in one of the sectors of the global economy which is the commodity market. That market has a booming characteristic specifically the Ethiopian coffee export market. Therefore, it will be the project point of focus.

The capstone project focuses on analysing 30 years of data and the current year before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during the period it has existed. The research used a couple of modern day tools to gather and analyse the data which has been collected from the Ethiopian Coffee Authorities. Tools such as Python and Excel have been used to develop a model for prediction and to test the hypothesis such as the ARIMA, Simple Linear Regression as well as the Paired T-test. Correlation and Covariance analyses have been carried out to test the relationship between the Ethiopian coffee market and the global economy participants such as the US and China to evaluate the degree of relationship and to find out whether the COVID-19 Pandemic has any effects on the coffee market in Ethiopia. The research result shows that the Ethiopian coffee export market will double its revenue for the coming 10 years.

The project find out COVID-19 has a significant negative relationship with the coffee market but as compared with other countries disasters, the coffee export market in Ethiopia has been slightly impacted, there was still significant growth in the market during this period due to governmental policies put in place to protect the market from crashing or suffering from very heavy losses over time. It can be considered as a role model for other world countries in combating the pandemic to protect the market.