The Nasdaq100 Index Subtle Alchemy (This is the 2nd version, enjoy!, #2) / This is the 2nd version, enjoy! (ePub)

You will have heard the word 'probabilities' if you've been trading for any amount of time. One of the most difficult things you will encounter as a trader is to repeat the very thing that just hurt you. Imagine as a child you put your hand into a naked flame, it hurt, you cried. Your brain now links pain to doing this and now it's programmed to avoid this pain to keep you safe, help you survive. (Remember the section "Programmed for Survival"?) But in trading when you have a loss using a particular strategy our brain kicks in and alerts us "Hey stupid! This hurt last time, you lost money, it made you sad, don't do it again, go try something else that actually works, something that will give you pleasure rather than the pain". You have to overrule this programming and put your hand back into the flame!

No strategy is fool proof and will work 100% of the time. Accept that. But whenever your strategy doesn't perform ignore the natural tendency to scrap everything and start from scratch. Traders who do this chase their tails for years and years searching for that perfect Holy Grail. How many times have you given up, switched strategy then several months later look back and realise if you'd simply stuck to your original plan and strategies you'd be a penny behind Warren Buffett!

It's thinking in probabilities rather than certainties that will keep you in the game. You cannot move the chart as a retail trader, you have no control over that, but what you do have control over take advantage of. Stack as much probability on your side as possible. Do it long enough with a positive risk to reward and you'll do well in this game.