The Offshore Renminbi (PDF)

Foreword ix Preface xiii List of Acronyms and Key Terms xvii CHAPTER 1 The New Global Role for the Renminbi 1 A Longstanding--but Failing--Path 4 Allowing Renminbi Markets to Flourish 9 Political Tailwinds for Internationalisation 13 Challenges and Consolidation Risks 19 The Renminbi in a Multipolar World 23 CHAPTER 2 Linking the Offshore and the Onshore Renminbi Markets 25 International Transactions in a Domestic Currency 25 The Starting Point for Renminbi Internationalisation 31 Investability: Opportunities and Challenges 40 Timing Convertibility 45 PBoC and Exchange Rate Policy 50 The Advantages of the Offshore Renminbi 53 CHAPTER 3 The Birth and Evolution of the Offshore Renminbi Market in Hong Kong 57 A Chronological Look at Key Policy Liberalisations 59 More on Renminbi Trade Settlement in the Post-Big Bang Era 79 From Renminbi Trade Settlement to Offshore Renminbi Deposits 93 CHAPTER 4 New Markets--New Jargon, New Opportunities 101 The Chinese Yuan in FX Spot 101 A New Diversity of Forward Markets 109 Opportunities in the CNH Markets 112 Tracking Returns in CNH Deposits 121 The Dim Sum Bond Market Matures 126 CHAPTER 5 Geographical Expansion of the Offshore Renminbi Universe 131 From Hong Kong to Haiwai through Trade 133 Renminbi in London and the Hub-and-Spokes Model 139 Direct Renminbi Cooperation with Mainland China 142 Shanghai's Aspiration and Infrastructure Overhaul 147 Hong Kong Is Still in Pole Position 151 CHAPTER 6 Drivers for Internationalisation 163 Public Policy: "Replacing" USD 168 Economics: China's Role in the Global Economy 174 For Investors: Appreciation--but, More Importantly, Diversification 178 For Corporations: Fairer and More Transparent Pricing 182 For Official Reserve Managers: A New Route to Stability? 187 CHAPTER 7 The Rise of the Renminbi and Its Policy Implications 193 The Renminbi's Rise: A Threat to the Hong Kong Dollar? 193 The Renminbi's Rise: A Regional FX Anchor 198 The Renminbi's Rise: The SDR and the IMF 206 The Renminbi's

Robert Minikin is the Senior Foreign Exchange Strategist
with Standard Chartered Bank, Hong Kong. He is a member of the
Global Foreign Exchange Strategy team focusing on Northeast Asia
FX, with a particular emphasis on "CNH," the new Chinese yuan (CNY)
offshore market in Hong Kong. He is a well known commentator on
financial market development who is regularly featured both in the
print and broadcast media. Mr. Minikin has more than twenty years
of experience in financial market analysis. He holds first and
second degrees in economics from the University of London.

Kelvin Lau is a Hong Kong-based economist covering
Greater China, specialising in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta
in Southern China. Kelvin joined Standard Chartered Bank as an
economist in September 2000 and is currently a member of the
Greater China research team. With a focus on Hong Kong and the
Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in Sourthern China, Kelvin provides
macroeconomic analysis and on-the-ground views of major economic
issues. His views are quoted by various international as well as
local media. He holds a degree in economics from the London School
of Economics and Political Science.

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