Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition / Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics (ePub)

Praise for the First Edition

"...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and
handling uncertainty."

--Journal of Applied Statistics

The critically acclaimed First Edition of
Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty
addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could
be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic
rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday
life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method
and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could
be rationally made.

Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the
go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further
applications at an accessible level including:

* A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in
probability

* A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use
the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the
recent recession

* A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are
not expressions of probability

* Applications of the book's thesis to statistics

* A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in
statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously
misleading, because they violate the rules of probability

Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for
students studying probability or statistics and for anyone
interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of
study in contemporary science and mathematics.