Why Nobody Believes the Numbers (PDF)

Why Nobody Believes the Numbers introduces a unique
viewpoint to population health outcomes
measurement: Results/ROIs should be presented as they
are, not as we wish they would be. This viewpoint
contrasts sharply with vendor/promoter/consultant claims along two
very important dimensions:

(1) Why Nobody Believes presents
outcomes/ROIs achievable right here on this very
planet...

(2) ...calculated using actual data rather
than controlled substances.

Indeed, nowhere in healthcare is it possible to find such
sharply contrasting worldviews, methodologies, and grips on
reality.

Why Nobody Believes the Numbers includes 12 case studies
of vendors, carriers, and consultants who were apparently playing
hooky the day their teacher covered fifth-grade math, as told by an
author whose argument style can be so persuasive that he was once
able to convince a resort to sell him a timeshare. The book's
lesson: no need to believe what your vendor tells you
-- instead you can estimate your own savings using
"ingredients you already have in your kitchen." Don't
be intimidated just because you lack a PhD in biostatistics, or
even a Masters, Bachelor's, high-school equivalency diploma or
up-to-date inspection sticker.

Why Nobody Believes the Numbers explains how
to determine if the ROIs are real...and why they usually
aren't. You'll learn how to:

* Figure out whether you are "moving the needle" or just
crediting a program with changes that would have happened
anyway

* Judge whether the ROIs your vendors report are plausible or
even arithmetically possible

* Synthesize all these insights into RFPs and contracts that
truly hold vendors accountable for results