Automatic trend estimation

Discrete stochastic processes and time series.- Trend definition.- Finite AR(1) stochastic process.- Monte Carlo experiments. - Monte Carlo statistical ensembles.- Numerical generation of trends.- Numerical generation of noisy time series.- Statistical hypothesis testing.- Testing the i.i.d. property.- Polynomial fitting.- Linear regression.- Polynomial fitting.- Polynomial fitting of artificial time series.- An astrophysical example.- Noise smoothing.- Moving average.- Repeated moving average (RMA).- Smoothing of artificial time series.- A financial example.- Automatic estimation of monotonic trends.- Average conditional displacement (ACD) algorithm.- Artificial time series with monotonic trends.- Automatic ACD algorithm.- Evaluation of the ACD algorithm.- A paleoclimatological example.- Statistical significance of the ACD trend.- Time series partitioning.- Partitioning of trends into monotonic segments.- Partitioning of noisy signals into monotonic segments.- Partitioning of a real time series.- Estimation of the ratio between the trend and noise.- Automatic estimation of arbitrary trends.- Automatic RMA (AutRMA).- Monotonic segments of the AutRMA trend.- Partitioning of a financial time series.

Vamos is Scientific researcher II at "Tiberiu Popoviciu" Institute of Numerical Analysis (Romania). His interests are on time series theory and quantitative finance. Craciun is Scientific researcher III at "Tiberiu Popoviciu" Institute of Numerical Analysis (Romania). Her interests are on time series theory and quantitative finance.