Clinical Prediction Models

Introduction.- Applications of prediction models.- Study design for prediction models.- Statistical models for prediction.- Overfitting and optimism in prediction models.- Choosing between alternative statistical models.- Dealing with missing values.- Case study on dealing with missing values.- Coding of categorical and continuous predictors.- Restrictions on candidate predictors.- Selection of main effects.- Assumptions in regression models: Additivity and linearity.- Modern estimation methods.- Estimation with external methods.- Evaluation of performance.- Clinical usefulness.- Validation of prediction models.- Presentation formats.- Patterns of external validity.- Updating for a new setting.- Updating for a multiple settings.- Prediction of a binary outcome: 30-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction.- Case study on survival analysis: Prediction of secondary cardiovascular events.- Lessons from case studies.

From the reviews:

"This book covers an important topic, because these prediction models are essential for individualizing diagnostic and treatment decision making. The topic is of increased importance as evidence-based medicine is increasingly implemented and as scientific and technological advances reveal new potential predictors of outcome. This book presents an approach for developing, validating, and updating prediction models.... [I]t provides ways to optimally utilize regression techniques to predict an outcome.... This book is written in a clear and accessible style.... [A]valuable resource for anyone interested in developing or applying a prediction model." (Todd A. Alonzo, American Journal of Epidemiology, 2009; Vol. 170, No. 4)

"Overall I think this is a well-written book, which will have a wide appeal. The idea of defining a strategy to deal with clinical prediction problems might be somewhat controversial, but considering the variable quality of statistical analyses that appear in the medical literature, I believe such an approach is desirable. The book appears to have struck a good balance between practical examples and descriptions of statistical techniques.... It is refreshing to see a practical book applying many modern regression techniques to real problems." (David Ohlssen, Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, Issue 6, 2009)

"Dr Steyerberg ... aims to provide an insight and also a practical illustration on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction outcomes. The book...will be of interest to those who work in medical cybernetics and indeed all cybernetics and systems researchers who are studying such medical problems and wish to apply statistical approaches and methodologies. It is worth examining the detailed contents list ... and individual chapters may be of particular value to potential readers." (C. J. H. Mann, Kybernetes, Vol. 38 (6), 2009)

"The book ...