Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics

independent multivariate sources.- Assessing sensitivities and uncertainties in models: a critical evaluation.- UNCSAM: a software tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mathematical models.- Set-membership identification of nonlinear conceptual models.- Parameter sensitivity and the quality of model predictions.- Towards a metrics for simulation model validation.- Use of a Fourier decomposition technique in aquatic ecosystems modelling.- Multiobjective inverse problems with ecological and economical motivations.- An expert-opinion approach to the prediction problem in complex systems.- 5. Environmental Sciences.- Critical loads and a dynamic assessment of ecosystem recovery.- Uncertainty analysis on critical loads for forest soils in Finland.- Monte Carlo simulations in ecological risk assessment.- Sensitivity analysis of a model for pesticide leaching and accumulation.- Bayesian uncertainty analysis in water quality modelling.- Modelling dynamics of air pollution dispersion in mesoscale.- Uncertainty factors analysis in linear water quality models.- Uncertainty analysis and risk assessment combined: application to a bioaccumulation model.- Diagnosis of model applicability by identification of incompatible data sets illustrated on a pharmacokinetic model for dioxins in mamals.- Regional calibration of a steady state model to assess critical acid loads.- Uncertainty analysis for the computation of greenhouse gas concentrations in IMAGE.- 6. Economics.- Forecast uncertainty in economics.- Some aspects of nonlinear discrete-time descriptor systems in economics.- Quasi-periodic and strange, chaotic attractors in Hick's nonlinear trade cycle model.- Monte Carlo experimentation for large scale forward-looking economic models.- Erratic dynamics in a restricted tatonnement process with two and three goods.- Chaotic dynamics in a two-dimensional overlapping generation model: a numerical investigation.- Nonlinearity and forecasting aspects of periodically integrated autoregressions.- Classical and modified resealed range analysis: some evidence.