Resource and Market Projections for Forest Policy Development

Section 1: Timber Assessments in Supporting the Development of National Forestry Programs and Policy. 1. The challenge of developing models to support forest sector policy analysis. 1.1 Introduction. 1.2 Shaping the Assessment System. 1.2.1 Past studies, methods, and policy intent. 1.2.2 Requirements of the RPA legislation. 1.2.3 Characteristics of the U.S. forest sector. 1.2.4 Changing management paradigms on public and private lands. 1.3 General model attributes; RW Haynes, DM Adams.- 2. Methodological considerations in developing the Timber Assessment Projection System. 2.1 Introduction. 2.2 Approaches to forest policy planning and analysis. 2.3 Overview of the Assessment System. 2.3.1 RPA legislation, past analytical traditions and model structure. 2.3.2 Outline of the Assessment System. 2.4 Some general considerations in forest sector model development. 2.4.1 Static or dynamic models. 2.4.2 Number of market levels. 2.4.3 Resource detail. 2.4.4 Form and extent of spatial detail. 2.4.5 Exogenous or endogenous land base. 2.4.6 Exogenous or endogenous management investment; DM Adams, RW Haynes.- Section 2: Model Components. 3. Solid wood-Timber Assessment Market model. 3.1 Introduction. 3.2. General TAMM structure. 3.3 Models of solid wood market components. 3.3.1 Demand for softwood lumber, softwood plywood, and OSB. 3.3.2 Demand for hardwood lumber. 3.3.3 Product supply relations and capacity adjustment. 3.3.4 Demand for logs and stumpage. 3.3.5 Sawtimber stumpage supply. 3.3.6 Nonstructural panels. 3.3.7 Transport costs. 3.4 Model solution. 3.4.1 Market equilibrium. 4.2 Links to other model elements. 3.5 Review of approaches to modeling the solid wood sector. 3.5.1 Short-term models versus long-term models. 3.5.2 Specification of demand. 3.5.3 Supply-side specification, log demand, and capital stock. 3.5.4 Spatial structure and trade. 3.5.5 Sawtimber supply; DMAdams.- 4. North American Pulp and Paper model (NAPAP). 4.1 Introduction. 4.1.1 Historical context. 4.2