The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate
(Sprache: Englisch)
If you think that global warming means slightly hotter weather and a modest rise in sea levels that will persist only so long as fossil fuels hold out (or until we decide to stop burning them), think again. In The Long Thaw, David Archer, one of the world's...
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If you think that global warming means slightly hotter weather and a modest rise in sea levels that will persist only so long as fossil fuels hold out (or until we decide to stop burning them), think again. In The Long Thaw, David Archer, one of the world's leading climatologists, predicts that if we continue to emit carbon dioxide we may eventually cancel the next ice age and raise the oceans by 50 meters. The great ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland may take more than a century to melt, and the overall change in sea level will be one hundred times what is forecast for 2100. By comparing the global warming projection for the next century to natural climate changes of the distant past, and then looking into the future far beyond the usual scientific and political horizon of the year 2100, Archer reveals the hard truths of the long-term climate forecast.
Inhaltsverzeichnis zu „The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate “
Acknowledgments xi Prologue. Global Warming in Geologic Time 1 An overview of the thrust of the book: human-induced climate change in the context of geologic time, in the past and in the future. SECTION I: THE PRESENT Chapter 1. The Greenhouse Effect 15 Fourier and greenhouse theory Early CO<sub> 2 measurements Arrhenius and the forecast. Climate science since then. Chapter 2: We've Seen It with Our Own Eyes. 30 Testing the forecast Impacts already. Chapter 3: Forecast of the Century. 45 A century-timescale climate spike Temperature, rainfall, sea level, and storms SECTION II: THE PAST Chapter 4: Millennial Climate Cycles. 57 Abrupt climate transitions, and climate cycles on millennial timescales. The Little Ice Age and the Medieval Optimum climates Chapter 5: Glacial Climate Cycles 69 History of their discovery Ice flows and melts in quirky ways. Orbital forcing and CO<sub> 2 forcing 69 Chapter 6: Geologic Climate Cycles. 78 Our ice age is unusual. The Earth is breathing. Chapter 7: The Present in the Bosom of the Past. 91 Climate change so far and in the coming century, compared with deglaciation, abrupt climate change, the Eocene hothouse, the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum event, and the K/T boundary. SECTION III: THE FUTURE Chapter 8: The Fate of Fossil Fuel CO<sub> 2 Reservoirs of carbon, breathing 101 New carbon from fossil fuels equilibrates with the ocean and the land. Chapter 9: Acidifying the Ocean. 114 CO<sub> 2 is an acid CaCO<sub> 3 is a base. Neutralization takes millennia. CO<sub> 2 remains higher than natural for hundreds of millennia Chapter 10: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks. 125 The short-term prognosis. The long-term prognosis. Chapter 11: Sea Level in the Deep Future. 137 If the past is the key to the future, we have the capacity to raise sea level by 50 meters, eventually. Chapter 12: Orbits, CO<sub> 2 , and the Next Ice Age. 149 Interplay between orbital and CO<sub> 2 climate forcings. The next
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ice age is about to be canceled. Epilogue: Carbon Economics and Ethics. 158 What the options are and how we decide. Further Reading 175 Index 179
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Autoren-Porträt von David Archer
David Archer is professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago, the author of Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast, and a frequent contributor to the Weblog RealClimate.
Bibliographische Angaben
- Autor: David Archer
- 2010, 180 Seiten, Maße: 14,1 x 21,4 cm, Kartoniert (TB), Englisch
- Verlag: PRINCETON UNIV PR
- ISBN-10: 0691148112
- ISBN-13: 9780691148113
Sprache:
Englisch
Rezension zu „The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate “
It is comprehensive, well written and includes numerous useful vignettes from climate history. Archer leads the reader to a simple yet accurate picture of climate changes, ranging from geological time scales to current warming, ice ages and prospects for the future.--Susan Solomon, Nature
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