20/20 Money / Fisher Investments Press (PDF)

Acknowledgments xi Introduction xiii Chapter 1 Investing Is a Science 1 Apollo's Arrow Shot Crooked 2 Dionysus--More Than Just a Good Vintner 3 Use the Method, Not the Dogma 5 Careful with Categories 13 Could Math Be Wrong? 15 Reduction: Why You Can't Quantify Everything 19 Chapter 2 Investing Is a Discipline 27 Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 29 Sagacity: Seeing Isn't Believing 41 Understanding and Being Curious 48 Chapter 3 Human Behavior 51 Brain Basics 53 Brains on the Market 64 My, What a Terrible Memory You Have! 71 Bad Behavioral Finance 76 Behavioral Miscellany 79 Chapter 4 Sentiment and the Media 83 Sentiment Basics 85 News and the Media 90 What's Their Motive? 98 Tips and Tricks to Navigate the Media 100 Metaphors We Invest by 106 Chapter 5 How Stock Markets Really Work 113 Capitalism by Any Other Name 114 It's Complicated . . . A Crash Course in CEAS 118 The New Golden Rule 130 Oldest and Still the Best: Supply and Demand 139 Chapter 6 Forecasting, Part 1--The Principle of Probability 147 Forecasting Is Strange Alchemy 148 Types of Predictions 150 Probability Theory, or How Markets Are Nothing Like Coin Tosses 154 The Biggest Problem of Them All 163 Investing Lessons from Probability 165 Looking Ahead . . . 170 Chapter 7 Forecasting, Part 2 --Recognizing Patterns 173 A Pattern by Any Other Name 174 Stock Market Patterns 175 Patterns Through the Noise 179 It's a Game of Relative Expectations 181 Back to the Future: Using History to Find Patterns 187 Three Big Drivers 191 An Optimistic Note on Future Patterns 195 Chapter 8 Practical Portfolio Management 197 The Virtues of Heuristics 198 Goal Setting 199 Personal Goals 201 Portfolio Goals 205 The Top-Down Philosophy 210 Miscellaneous Heuristics 223 Chapter 9 The Nature of Risk and Navigating Markets in Troubled Times 229 Risk and Uncertainty 231 Financial Risk, or What Happens When You Assume 233 In Troubled Times 239 Parting Thoughts 253 Notes 255 Selected Bibliography and Further Reading 259 About the

Michael J. Hanson has been an investment banker as well as a stock analyst and is currently a senior editor and recurring columnist at Fisher Investments' MarketMinder.com. He has lectured on topics in money management at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and speaks regularly throughout the country on a variety of topics, including capital markets and behavioral finance.

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