The Business Forecasting Deal / SAS Institute Inc (PDF)

Foreword (Tom Wallace). Foreword (Anne G. Robinson). Acknowledgments. Prologue. Chapter 1 Fundamental Issues in Business Forecasting. The Problem of Induction. The Realities of Business Forecasting. The Contest. What Is Demand? Constrained Forecast. Demand Volatility. Inherent Volatility and Artificial Volatility. Evils of Volatility. Evaluating Forecast Performance. Embarking on Improvement. Notes. Chapter 2 Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 1. Worst Practices in the Mechanics of Forecasting. Model "Overfi tting" and "Pick-Best" Selection. Confusing Model Fit with Forecast Accuracy. Accuracy Expectations and Performance Goals. Failure to Use a Naïve Model or Assess Forecast Value Added. Forecasting Hierarchies. Outlier Handling. Notes. Chapter 3 Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 2. Worst Practices in the Process and Practices of Forecasting. Politics of Forecasting. Blaming the Forecast. Adding Variation to Demand. Evangelical Forecasting. Overinvesting in the Forecasting Function. Forecasting Performance Measurement and Reporting. Forecasting Software Selection. Editorial Comment on Forecasting Practices. Notes. Chapter 4 Forecast Value Added Analysis. What Is Forecast Value Added? The Naïve Forecast. Why Is FVA Important? FVA Analysis: Step-by-Step. Further Application of FVA Analysis. Case Studies. Summary: The Lean Approach to Forecasting. Notes. Chapter 5 Forecasting without History. Typical New Product Forecasting Situations. New Product Forecasting by Structured Analogy. Organizational Realignment. Summary. Notes. Chapter 6 Alternative Approaches to the Problems of Business Forecasting. Statistical Approach. Collaborative Approach. Supply Chain Engineering Approach. Pruning Approach. Summary. Notes. Chapter 7 Implementing a Forecasting Solution. Why Do Forecasting Implementations Fail? Preproject Assessment. Requesting Information or Proposals. Evaluating Software Vendors. Warning Signs of Failure. Notes. Chapter 8 Practical First

MICHAEL GILLILAND is Product Marketing Manager at SAS Institute and has worked in consu-mer products forecasting for more than twenty years. Prior to joining SAS in 2004, Mike held forecasting management positions in the food, electronics, and apparel industries and served as a consultant. He is a frequent speaker at industry events, has published articles in Supply Chain Management Review, Journal of Business Forecasting, Foresight, and APICS magazine, and was a columnist on "Worst Practices in Business Forecasting" for Supply Chain Forecasting Digest. Mike holds a BA in philosophy from Michigan State University, and master's degrees in philosophy and mathematical sciences from Johns Hopkins University. Follow his blog, The Business Forecasting Deal, at blogs.sas.com/forecasting.

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