How to Decide

Introduction

You make thousands of decisions every day some big, some small. Some clearly of great consequence, like what job to take. And some clearly of little consequence, like what to eat for breakfast.

No matter what type of decision you re facing, it s imperative to develop a decision process that not only improves your decision quality, but also helps sort your decisions so you can identify which ones are bigger and which ones are smaller.

Why is it so important to have a high-quality decision process?

Because there are only two things that determine how your life turns out: luck and the quality of your decisions. You have control over only one of those two things.

Luck, by definition, it out of your control. Where and when you were born, whether your boss comes into work in a bad mood, which admissions officer happens to see your college application these are all things that are out of your hands.

What you do have some control over, what you can improve, is the quality of your decisions. And when you make better-quality decisions, you increase the chances that good things will happen to you.

The only thing you have control over that can influence the way your life turns out is the quality of your decisions.

I believe this is a pretty noncontroversial thing to say: It s important to improve your decision process, because it s the one thing you have control over in determining the quality of your life.

Even though the importance of making quality decisions seems obvious, it s surprising how few people can actually articulate what a good decision process looks like.

This is something that I ve been thinking about all my adult life. First, as a PhD student in cognitive science. Then, as a professional poker player, where I had to constantly make rapid, high-stakes decisions with real money on the line, in an environment where luck has an obvious and significant influence on your short-term results. And for the

Annie Duke

"'The decisions you make are like a portfolio of investments.' I believe that almost everything can be viewed as a portfolio -- whether it's a set of products a single company decides to make, the schools and jobs and skills an individual invests in, and all kinds of life decisions. The question is, how do we make sure that portfolio as a whole advances you toward your goals -- even though any individual decision within it is a win or loss? In this new book, Annie provides exercises for how to decide. All of us -- not just investors -- should be obsessed with making better decisions." 
--Marc Andreessen, cofounder of Netscape and Andreessen Horowitz

"How to Decide is a delightful, practical guide to making better decisions in a complex world. Annie Duke explains exactly how to cut through the biases that prevent most of us from making wise choices and offers readers a toolkit for learning from the past and tackling the future in an uncertain world.  I look forward to assigning this book to my Wharton students for many years to come.
--Katy Milkman, Professor at The Wharton School of The University of Pennsylvania and host of the Choiceology podcast


"What a phenomenal achievement! Written with zest, flair, and compassion, it's a ton of fun, and it's also packed with original ideas."
--Cass R. Sunstein, author of How Change Happens

"Annie Duke gives you the tools you need and tells you how to use them effectively. Smart and practical, How to Decide is the best user's guide to decision-making that you'll find."    
--Michael J. Mauboussin, author of The Success Equation

"This is a vitally important book. Simple, powerful and generous, it should be required reading."
--Seth Godin, author of This is Marketing

No one could explain the process of high-stakes decision-making better than Annie Duke, or make it as entertaining and insightful as